{"id":2300,"date":"2019-04-29T10:26:18","date_gmt":"2019-04-29T02:26:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/feizhaojun.com\/?p=2300"},"modified":"2019-04-29T10:30:30","modified_gmt":"2019-04-29T02:30:30","slug":"%e5%81%87%e5%a6%82%e5%b8%9d%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%84%e6%98%8f%e9%99%8d%e4%b8%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/feizhaojun.com\/?p=2300","title":{"rendered":"\u5047\u5982\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u9ec4\u660f\u964d\u4e34"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u539f\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a\u5df2\u5220\u9664<br \/>\n\u539f\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/weibo.com\/dresslessleep\">Murph\u4e36\u7487<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u51e0\u5929\u524d\u521a\u521a\u8bfb\u5b8c\u4e86 Ray Dalio \u5728\u4eca\u5e749\u670810\u53f7\u624d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u65b0\u4e66 \u300aBig Debt Crisis\u300b\uff08\u300a\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u300b\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5b8f\u89c2\u7b56\u7565\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1 \u2014\u2014 \u6865\u6c34\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\uff0cRay 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Murph\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u62ff\u6211\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5386\u7a0b\u6765\u5bf9\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u641e\u6e05\u695a\u6211\u56fd\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e5f\u906d\u9047\u5371\u673a\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8e\u662f\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5934\u8bf4\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4036omcj212w0r9e82-650x455.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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Raghuram Rajan \u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5c31\u8d8a\u5feb\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u6e90\u662f\u5916\u503a\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u5176\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u5c11\u6709\u5916\u503a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6162\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c<strong>\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u56fd\u6c11\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u6765\u6295\u8d44\u5e76\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f<\/strong>\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u5373\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u94b1\u6765\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u53c8\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u501f\u5916\u503a\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u6211\u56fd\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl3yxckw6j212w0m4gpa-650x369.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u5404\u56fd\u56fd\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff08\u56fd\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4 = \u653f\u5e9c\u50a8\u84c4 + \u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4 + \u4f01\u4e1a\u50a8\u84c4\uff09\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u5c45\u699c\u9996\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u90fd\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5982\u6b64\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl46re4ffj212w0n0n0a-650x384.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6c11\u65cf\u7279\u70b9\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u798f\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\u8f83\u4f4e\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u798f\u5229\u6c34\u5e73\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u56fd\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u50a8\u84c4\u4e0e\u653f\u5e9c\u50a8\u84c4\u5747\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u8bf4\u5230\u798f\u5229\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u60f3\u5230\u5df4\u897f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u5199\u5230\u5df4\u897f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88ab\u56fd\u5185\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u9ad8\u798f\u5229\u653f\u7b56\u6240\u62d6\u57ae\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u5df4\u897f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u9000\u4f11\u5e74\u9f84\u662f55\u5c81\u3002\u9000\u4f11\u4e4b\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u662f\u9000\u4f11\u524d\u5de5\u8d44\u768470%\u3002\u800c OECD (\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7b49\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df) 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl470m3i0j212w0pgdkb-650x425.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4ece\u6539\u9769\u5f00\u653e\u4e4b\u540e\u5b83\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c2001\u5e74\u52a0\u5165WTO\u4e4b\u540e\u66f4\u662f\u51e0\u4e4e\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u76f4\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u5c11\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u591a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5<strong>\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237<\/strong>\u4e00\u76f4\u662f<strong>\u987a\u5dee<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u591a\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u5c11\u3002\u5728\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u5916\u8d38\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e2d\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u51fa\u53e3\u591a\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u7ed3\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u7ec8\u7a76\u662f\u8981\u628a\u62ff\u5230\u624b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6362\u6210\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6765\u53d1\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u4e24\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u65e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u653e\u4efb\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4e0d\u65ad\u4fb5\u8680\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff08\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u4f1a\u8ba9\u51fa\u53e3\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d8\u8d35\uff0c\u800c\u5916\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u53d8\u7684\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u5370\u949e\u53bb\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u4e70\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u6291\u5236\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08 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src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4764dw7j212w0oi43u-650x410.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4f59\u989d\uff0c\u4ece2001\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165WTO\u4e4b\u540e\u4e00\u98de\u51b2\u5929\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6545\u4e8b\u8fdb\u5c55\u5230\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u51e0\u4e4e\u505a\u5bf9\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u624d\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u4e86\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5947\u8ff9\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u4ec5\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u81ea\u8c6a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u795e\u5947\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u8fd8\u8981\u7ee7\u7eed\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4i8gwugj212w0lvhdt-650x365.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4nb5twbj212w0jle81-650x327.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4ovknk8j212w0pxkjl-650x433.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u2014\u2014\u6ce1\u6cab<\/h3>\n<p>\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ecf\u5386\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u5546\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ece2001\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8d85\u8fc7500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2005\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8d85\u8fc71000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl47jxmkxj212w0o4n19-650x403.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u5982\u70c8\u706b\u70f9\u6cb9\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u6001\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u63a8\u5347\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u623f\u5b50\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u90fd\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u8d27\u5e01\u53c8\u5728\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u6b64\u65f6\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u56fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u53cc\u91cd\u6536\u76ca \u2014\u2014 \u8d44\u4ea7\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u53e0\u52a0\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5347\u503c\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Ray 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl47qmcxyj212w0i1gqw-650x301.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl47twct0j20nm0ojtax-650x676.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4aato6fj212w0d8q58-650x221.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u57282008\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u7387\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl483wlhfj212w0d876a-650x221.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl486b5ajj212w0d6mze-650x220.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u65e5\u672c\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u57281990\u5e74\u7206\u53d1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e5f\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u4e0eGDP\u7684\u6bd4\u98de\u6da8\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u623f\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86\u8fd1\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff08\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc765%\uff09\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl488tkzwg20qy0gst94-650x405.png\" alt=\"image\" \/><br 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~ 90\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u572898 ~ 08\u5e74\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u572808 ~ 18\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u4e0eGDP\u7684\u6bd4\u98de\u6da8\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\u6839\u636e\u5357\u5f00\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9662\u957f\u590f\u658c\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u5728\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u6240\u8fd0\u7528\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff1a\u201c2016\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d89\u53ca\u623f\u4ea7\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u670926.7\u4e07\u4ebf\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u90e8\u94f6\u884c\u8d37\u6b3e25%\u3002\u5230\u73b0\u5728\uff08\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\uff09\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u548c\u623f\u4ef7\u3001\u5730\u4ef7\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8670%\u3002\u201c 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4r4jj0uj212w0lvx6p-650x365.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4rap40dj212w0lv1ky-650x365.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u2014\u2014\u53cd\u8f6c<\/h3>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u6807\u9898\u53eb\u505a\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u8981\u7834\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u5f00\u59cb\u7531\u70c8\u706b\u70f9\u6cb9\u822c\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u53d8\u7684\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u7e41\u8363\u4e86\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u524d\u9762\u8bf4\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u4f9d\u9760\u51fa\u53e3\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u5927\u91cf\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u4e0a\u5347\uff08\u6c47\u7387\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u6765\u8c03\u8282\u8d38\u6613\u5e73\u8861\u7684\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5370\u949e\u53bb\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u201c\u64cd\u7eb5\u6c47\u7387\u201d\uff0c\u5f3a\u884c\u7a33\u5b9a\u4f4f\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u6c47\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl48e76jvj212w0i3dj1-650x302.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl48korl0j212w0p4dz4-650x420.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl48uheo9j212w0hun0n-650x298.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4f59\u989d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece2014\u5e74\u52302016\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u56fd\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u4e00\u4e07\u4ebf\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u56e0\u4e3a<strong>\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236<\/strong>\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u800c\u5f97\u4ee5\u88ab\u6291\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u5916\uff0c\u5728Ray\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u3002\u524d\u9762\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u50ac\u751f\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u800c\u8d44\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u201c\u8d22\u5bcc\u6548\u5e94\u201d \u2014\u2014 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl48zc4guj212w0gt0vt-650x281.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u79c1\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\uff0c\u4ece2010\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u5165\u51cf\u50a8\u84c4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e5f\u5728\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08 * 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl497bph1j212w0outc0-650x415.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4ece2008\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u987a\u5dee\u786e\u5b9e\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u8ddf\u90a3\u4e9b\u7206\u53d1\u8fc7\u5371\u673a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl49b1w5aj212w0i4acz-650x302.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl49q9c5tj20hc05xabd-650x222.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u4ece2000\u5e74\u76846.5%\u4e00\u8def\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f32003\u5e74\u76841%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e3e\u63aa\u6210\u529f\u7684**\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u501f\u503a\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u4eec\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f9d\u9760\u503a\u52a1\u6d88\u8d39\/\u6295\u8d44\u3002 **<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl49llwo7j212w0d8q58-650x221.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u7f8e\u56fd\u57282001\u5e74\u8fd8\u662f\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff08\u7070\u8272\u90e8\u5206 \u2014\u2014 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src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4adqv4cj212w0d540m-650x220.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u623f\u4ef7\u4e5f\u5728\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5f53\u65f6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u8fd9\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u5370\u949e\u53bb\u4e70\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u76f4\u63a5\u538b\u4f4e\u623f\u8d37\u5229\u7387\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u9f13\u52b1\u8001\u767e\u59d3\u4e70\u623f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u719f\u6089\u7684\u201c\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u201d\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4ahaivnj212w0d00vo-650x218.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><br 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src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4aqa1vej212w0d3tay-650x219.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u79c1\u4eba\u503a\u52a1\u4e0eGDP\u7684\u6bd4\u5374\u4e00\u8def\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4asr24sg20qy0gst94-650x405.png\" alt=\"image\" 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**<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u90a3\u4e9b\u6551\u5e02\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e16\u754c\u5c31\u8981\u518d\u6b21\u7ecf\u5386\u201c\u5927\u8427\u6761\u201d\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cRay\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u4f18\u96c5\u7684\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u201d\uff08beautiful deleveraging\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u61c2\u4ece2008\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e86\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4a3w77ej20o80ebwk9-650x384.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl6dse3fzj212w0ezmzs-650x250.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u662f2008\u5e74\u906d\u9047\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u201c\u56db\u4e07\u4ebf\u201d\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u6da8\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5927\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u662f2015\u5e74\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5916\u90e8\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f31\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u901f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u660e\u663e\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u518d\u6b21\u51fa\u624b\u6551\u5e02\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u964d\u606f\u964d\u51c6\uff08\u5370\u949e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4b5zxnij212w0ii44j-650x309.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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\u2014\u2014 <strong>\u5916\u503a<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Ray\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0c<strong>\u7531\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9760\u5370\u94b1\u6765\u8fd8\u5916\u503a\uff08\u53ef\u4ee5\u5370\u6cf0\u94e2\u4f46\u662f\u6ca1\u6cd5\u5370\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5927\u91cf\u5916\u503a\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u611f\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u6050\u614c<\/strong>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u53bb\u62fc\u547d\u7684\u5151\u6362\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4ee4\u672c\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u3002<strong>\u672c\u56fd\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u540e\uff0c\u5916\u503a\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u8fd8\u4e0d\u8d77\u4e86\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u52a0\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u8d27\u5e01\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u8d2c\u503c<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u7206\u53d1\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5916\u503a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u906d\u9047\u8d27\u5e01\u5927\u5e45\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u800c\u8d27\u5e01\u5927\u5e45\u8d2c\u503c\u53c8\u4f1a\u4ee4\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u683c\u9661\u5347\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cRay\u628a\u8fd9\u7c7b\u56fd\u5bb6\u906d\u9047\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u901a\u80c0\u5f0f\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u201d\uff08Inflationary\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5f53\u56fd\u5185\u50a8\u84c4\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u56fd\u5c31\u53ea\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u501f\u5916\u503a\u6765\u6ee1\u8db3\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5df4\u897f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u53ea\u670915%\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5916\u503a\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4e86\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u768413%\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5916\u503a\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u57282017\u5e74\u4e3a32%\uff08\u5341\u51e0\u5e74\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u572830%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u5df4\u897f\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u5df4\u897fReal\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u56fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4chgdo5j212w0laq6y-650x356.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>2014\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u52a0\u4e0a\u529e\u4e16\u754c\u676f\uff0c\u5965\u8fd0\u4f1a\u7684\u52b3\u6c11\u4f24\u8d22\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0cReal\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u8def\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8fd150%\u3002\u800c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e00\u6708\u4efd\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u53f0\uff09\uff0cReal\u518d\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc25%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cklwj4j212w0r8q9a-650x455.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u57282014\u5e74\u66fe\u9661\u5347\u8d85\u8fc710%\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u4e5f\u518d\u6b21\u5f00\u59cb\u6500\u5347\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u770b\u5df4\u897f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88ab\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u591a\u4e48\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e3a\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u5916\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cngfzgj212w0nkq6j-650x394.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u8fc7\u53bb\u8fd9\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u5916\u503a\u89c4\u6a21\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0d\u4f4e\uff0c\u57282016\u5e74\u4e5f\u9ad8\u8fbe35%\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5230\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u9a6c\u4e0a\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u6050\u614c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cp4qjej212w0loq6n-650x362.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u6bd4\u7d22\u7684\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ece\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u6bd4\u7d22\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8d2c\u503c\uff08\u56fe\u793a\u4e3a\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u5347\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e8690%\uff01<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cszvbvj212w0ij41y-650x309.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8fc710%\uff0c\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u66f4\u662f\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8640%\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u597d\u53cb\u5bf9\u6211\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e71\u5230\u4e86\u6ca1\u4eba\u6562\u643a\u5e26\u597d\u4e1c\u897f\u51fa\u95e8\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5f00\u4e00\u8f86\u597d\u8f66\u51fa\u95e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5f53\u8857\u62a2\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cvycm3j212w09etdx-650x157.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e3aRay\u6574\u7406\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u5371\u673a\u8fdb\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u6848\u4f8b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6211\u5708\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f<strong>\u5916\u503a\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4<\/strong> \u2014\u2014 \u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e3a46%\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a13%\uff1b<strong>\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237<\/strong>\uff08\u8d38\u6613\u662f\u987a\u5dee\u8fd8\u662f\u9006\u5dee\uff09\u2014\u2014 \u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e3a\u8d1f6%\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u6b631.75%\uff1b<strong>\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907<\/strong>\u5360GDP\u7684\u6bd4 \u2014\u2014 \u5e73\u5747\u503c\u4e3a10%\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u8fbe23%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u6b63\u5728\u5b9e\u884c<strong>\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236<\/strong>\uff08\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u9003\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f62\u6210\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u6050\u614c\uff09\u5462\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f<strong>\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8d27\u5e01\u5371\u673a\u7684<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u906d\u9047\u8d27\u5e01\u5371\u673a\uff08\u8d27\u5e01\u5927\u5e45\u8d2c\u503c50%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u5462\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5916\u503a\u5f88\u5c11\uff0c\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4e5f\u5f88\u5145\u8db3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f53\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f15\u8d77\u6050\u614c\u7684\u3002\u800c<strong>\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u4f1a\u523a\u6fc0\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong>\uff0c\u8ba9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u90fd\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u65b0\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5f53\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u7ba1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u5b83\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4f55\u51b5\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u7ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5728Ray\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u91cc\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ecf\u5386\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5bfc\u81f4\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u7406\u60f3\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4fdd\u6c47\u7387\u7684<\/strong>\uff0c\u8ba9\u5b83\u8dcc\u4e00\u8dcc\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u597d\u5904\u3002Ray\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5199\u5230\uff0c**\u5728\u6240\u6709\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u653f\u5e9c\u90fd\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u5370\u949e\uff0c\uff08\u7531\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u501f\u94b1\u5927\u641e\u6295\u8d44\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba9\u8d27\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u8d8a\u5feb\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u7684\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5feb\u3002 **<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5982\u679c\u5728\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd8\u53bb\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u6536\u7f29\u7684\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u66f4\u52a0\u6076\u6027\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u3002**\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u7ba1\u653f\u5e9c\u6700\u521d\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u60f3\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u90a3\u4e9b\u60f3\u4fdd\u6c47\u7387\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u4f1a\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u7d27\u7f29\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u6765\u8bf4\u5b9e\u5728\u662f\u592a\u75db\u82e6\u4e86\u3002 **<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u72af\u4e0b\u4e25\u91cd\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4cy7h9gj212w0datbp-650x222.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u7ebf\u662f\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u84dd\u8272\u7ebf\u4e3a\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u57281990\u5e74\u4e00\u6708\u65e5\u672c\u201c\u5e73\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\u7834\u88c2\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u7528\u4e86\u6574\u6574\u516d\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff081990 ~ 1996\uff09\u624d\u628a\u5229\u7387\u964d\u5230\u96f6\u3002\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7206\u53d1\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u52a8\u4f5c\u53ea\u7528\u4e86\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4d2bhwvj212w0d6q56-650x220.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u60f3\u7684\u5462\uff1f\u5176\u5b9e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u4fdd\u6c47\u7387\u5440\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4d64h12j212w0igdj5-650x308.jpg\" alt=\"image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u56fe\u4e3a\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u6c47\u7387\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65e5\u5143\u5b9e\u5728\u592a\u4fbf\u5b9c\u4e86\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u5012\u7740\u770b \u2014\u2014 \u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u65e5\u5143\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ece1985\u5e74\u65e5\u672c\u7b7e\u7f72\u300a\u5e7f\u573a\u534f\u8bae\u300b\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u5f00\u59cb\u4ece1\uff1a250\u5347\u503c\u52301\uff1a150\u5de6\u53f3\u30021990\u5e74\u5e73\u6210\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u8fdf\u8fdf\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u5185\u53d1\u751f\u4e86disinflation \u2014\u2014 <strong>\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e0b\u6ed1<\/strong>\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff08\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7206\u53d1\u4e25\u91cd\u5371\u673a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u7adf\u7136\u662f\u5347\u503c\u7684\uff01\u5982\u4e0a\u56fe\uff0c\u4ece1990\u5e74\u76841\uff1a 150\u5347\u503c\u5230\u4e861\uff1a100\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdn.feizhaojun.com\/blog\/2300\/ed2150e6ly1fvl4d7pzvwj212w0i2q6x-650x301.jpg\" alt=\"image\" 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